Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen hat Wort gehalten und wie Anfang März 2017 angekündigt, den US-amerikanischen Leitzins um 0,5 Prozentpunkte angehoben. Die Aktienkurse steigen, die Kauflaune der US-Amerikaner ist ungebrochen und die Produktion läuft weiterhin rund. Die Zeichen stehen auf Wachstum – von derzeit 2,5 Prozent. Wie lange der Aufschwung anhalten wird, ist selbst unter Experten nicht gewiss. Schließlich birgt jede Zinserhöhung immer auch eine Kehrseite. Und Europa? Auf den dortigen Finanzmärkten tut sich nichts. EZB-Chef Mario Draghi zeigt sich unberührt.
Die Kehrseite der Medaille
Angehobene Leitzinsen sind Indikator für eine rundlaufende Wirtschaft. Doch langfristig betrachtet wird es teurer, wenn sich Unternehmen für Investitionen Geld leihen wollen. Zum Nachteil für das besonders unter Trump angestrebte Wachstum. Außerdem fördert die gute Konjunktur eine Erstarkung des Dollars. Das Ergebnis: Amerikanische Produkte werden teurer und finden im Ausland weniger Abnehmer. Eine Entwicklung, die für Trump wohl absehbar ist, weswegen er sich bisher wiederholt gegen eine Zinserhöhung ausgesprochen hat. Der Präsident sieht beide Effekte kommen. Die Kehrseite der Medaille könnte also sein Ziel, der Mann zu sein, der für den langersehnten Konjunkturschub sorgte, zu Nichte machen.
Draghi zeigt sich unberührt
Und was passiert in Europa? Nichts! Medien berichten zwar von „Aktienzuckungen“, doch Zinserhöhungen sind noch nicht in Sicht. Laut Analysten bestünde die ungeschriebene Regel, dass spätestens sechs bis neun Monate nach der Fed auch die Europäische Zentralbank nachziehen müsste. Doch EZB-Chef Mario Draghi reagiert bisher verhalten und zieht keine Zinserhöhung in Betracht. Seine Argumente: Noch immer haben sich die südlichen Mitgliedsstaaten der Europäischen Union nicht von der Finanzkrise erholt. Ein Anstieg des europäischen Leitzinses erhöhe die Wahrscheinlichkeit für Länder wie Griechenland oder Italien erneut in den Schuldensumpf abzurutschen. Zudem liegt die Kerninflationsrate europaweit bei 0,5 und nicht wie angestrebt bei knapp zwei Prozent. Ein wichtiges Kriterium, wovon die Notenbank eine Anhebung des Leitzinses abhängig macht.
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